[hn_throwaway_99]

I think it may differ by region. I can say factually that the testing in Texas is absolutely abysmal. Many people who have lots of symptoms are being turned away for testing.

On Tuesday our illustrious governor announced with lots of fanfare that Walgreen's would be expanding drive-thru testing using Abbott's 15-minute testing devices. It's now Friday evening and still no word on even where the locations will be for these testing sites. I'm sick of these BS press conferences and press releases, just STFU if you're not actually ready to do anything.

There is no way we'll be able to restart our economy without at least a 10X or more increase in testing. For right now the lack of testing isn't that huge of a deal when most people are quarantining at home anyway, but it will become a huge deal when people start going back to work. I'm still kind of amazed I haven't seen any convincing plan about how this eventually ends. Everything will just flare back up again once social distancing ends without tons of robust testing.

[grandmczeb]

This may be a bit of an optimistic take, but there's at least some evidence the IFR is ~0.37%. Given the current number of deaths in NYC, that would imply at least ~20% of the city population has already been infected, likely more given the lag between infection and death. If that's true, the best strategy will probably be to keep vulnerable groups isolated and loosen some restrictions until herd immunity is reached. How long that would be depends on the hospitalization rate since ideally we'd have hospitals just barely at max capacity, but I don't think its implausible by the end of the summer we'd reach ~75% infected at which point all restrictions could be lifted.

[fyfy18]

Further to this, once we have antigen tests rolling out en mass it will give us a much clearer picture as to how many people have been infected (and are now hopefully immune). Until then we just need to sit back and wait.