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by jeremyjh 2255 days ago
The estimate for the "no mitigation" scenario by the Imperial College is 2.2 million deaths [1] in the US. There is a large range of estimates that have come out since then to take into account the mitigation that has happened and how effective they have been. Lately things have been looking better but without some comprehensive contact tracing and isolation system we cannot "reopen" and drop those mitigations without moving back into the range of hundreds of thousands of casualties.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/18/imperial-college-epidem...
1 comments
arcticbull 2255 days ago
That write-up was based on extremely early CFR data, with no population studies having been conducted at the time. Latest data is pointing to, as I called out, a fatality rate of 1/10th the CFR. This is especially true as we're counting anyone who tested positive for COVID as a COVID death, even if they were hit by a truck.
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DiogenesKynikos 2255 days ago
With a CFR of 0.4%, 1 million Americans would die.

Of course, if more than 200 million Americans came down with CoVID-19 in a short span of time, the health system would collapse.

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jeremyjh 2255 days ago
Is that why they are digging mass graves in New York?
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