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by DiogenesKynikos 2255 days ago
> Only 20% of America is 70,000,000 people. That's staggering.

So imagine 4x as many people getting infected with a virus that is many times as lethal.

> It may be 1% in Italy because the population of Lombardy was overwhelmingly old, and overwhelmingly sick.

And the US has other problems, such as obesity. But the mortality will be much higher wherever the virus overwhelms healthcare systems. As we've seen, that can happen very quickly.
1 comments
arcticbull 2255 days ago
If we, again, assume that 15% of the US has already had it (as in Gangelt), and that herd immunity kicks in at 60-70%, that means we'd expect to see another 45-55% of the population -- 147-179 million cases. If we actually isolate the vulnerable, basically nobody would die.
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DiogenesKynikos 2255 days ago
That would be an incorrect assumption. The Gangelt study is about one small town in Germany where there was a known superspreading event at the Carnival festival.

If 15% of the US had already been infected, then based on the Gangelt study, there would be 200 thousand deaths, and millions hospitalized with severe illness.

You're completely misreading the Gangelt study.

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