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by tathougies 2258 days ago
No business should prepare for their business to become illegal. Air demand is down only partly due to consumer behavior. The majority of the demand is down due to government action. Your argument is like arguing alcohol producers should have prepared for Prohibition.

No the best recourse when your business becomes illegal is to grant a large dividend to shareholders before your creditors liquidate the company. Preparing for your business to become illegal is a waste of money
2 comments
triceratops 2258 days ago
> The majority of the demand is down due to government action.

If government action didn't kill demand, the ensuing death toll from letting the virus spread unchecked would eventually do it anyway.

"Travel is illegal" is only the proximate cause of the woes of the airline industry. The root cause is a lack of preparation.

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tathougies 2257 days ago
> If government action didn't kill demand, the ensuing death toll from letting the virus spread unchecked would eventually do it anyway.

2 million people dying in the United States isn't really that much. Given that COVID mostly affects people already more likely to die, the death toll had COVID gone unchecked would likely not be that much greater than the 2.8 million Americans that already die each year. Assuming a 30% overlap, we'd see deaths go from 2.8million to 4.2 million in one year, followed by herd immunity (according to the models). We'd then see subsequent years with a lower death rate (since there'd be fewer people with pre-existing conditions). It is unlikely that this would be as economically devastating as argued. It is incredibly unlikely it would have reduced air demand to the levels we're seeing now.

Air demand would still be around for flights to see family, etc. Most of it is gone due to government regulation. Necessary regulation for sure, but still regulation.

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matthewdgreen 2258 days ago
The Wimbledon organizers paid substantial premiums for pandemic insurance. They recently received a large payout.
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mrkstu 2258 days ago
In this environment, if all the affected business had done the same, the insurance companies would have all gone broke and we'd be at square one.
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