[not_exactly__]

> But this time, reporting to WHO took ~5 days. It was discovered by dr Zhang Jixian on Dec 26, then reported to WHO on Dec 31.

False. It took much longer than five days. The WHO was indeed notified on the 31st but the Chinese government organs knew about this long before. First CCTV report that I recall was around the 15th. First confirmed cases were early December. There’s even US intel reports dating back to November.

But when this started, the Chinese system did what the Chinese system always does: try to save face and pretend all is okay. I do not share any optimism that this trait will change especially given the crushing blows to press freedom in the last ten years.

[FooBarWidget]

> First CCTV report that I recall was around the 15th.

Could you link to a source? I have not been able to find any sources that definitively point to something concrete (as opposed to merely rumors and heresay).

> There’s even US intel reports dating back to November.

Ah yes, the CIA reports from November. I find this highly suspicious. How did the CIA know about it that early? And if they did know about it that early, why did they not do anything about it, like preparing America for the coming onslaught?

And please forgive me but US reports about China are not exactly the most trustworthy given the current environment.

> But when this started, the Chinese system did what the Chinese system always does: try to save face and pretend all is okay.

Believe what you will. I believe otherwise (or at least, I believe in a more nuanced story than you do): there was indeed face-saving going on by city-level authorities, but once human-to-human transmission was confirmed, the central government stepped in and kicked the city-level authorities on their asses. Now, the city-level authorities have been fired, and I believe the central government will do something to discourage similar behavior in the future.

The Chinese government is not a monolith. See also https://twitter.com/dbey85/status/1246370465209188357?s=20

[redis_mlc]

See my comments just below. There is a link with a timeline, and it's very likely this started in November.

[philliphaydon]

We heard about it just before Xmas time in Singapore. Basically that there was another SARS outbreak in china. It was definitely known before the 26th.

[FooBarWidget]

Well doesn't the fact that they mention "SARS" confirm that they didn't know it was a new virus?

COVID-19 is not SARS. It's less lethal but far more contagious. SARS would not have been such a big issue because it doesn't spread as easily.

[remarkEon]

COVID-19 is SARS2. Not sure what your point is unless it's to be pedantic that Novel Coronavirus is not what is colloquially known as "SARS".

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/covid-19

[FooBarWidget]

The initial scientific name is similar, but it is still a different virus with very different characteristics. As I said: it is less lethal than SARS but MUCH more contagious, plus a much longer incubation time and possibility of asymptomatic spread. Sars cannot be spread asymptomatically. About the only things similar are that they are both coronaviruses, and the symptoms. I am not being pedantic at all, these characteristics are key.

Sars 2 is to Sars 1 as Mario 2 is to Mario 1. About the only thing similar is the characters.

How many times have we seen another variant of bird flu in the past 15 years? I lost count. Some of them even jumped to humans. But when that happened, we didn't immediately raise alarms of an upcoming pandemic: a virus jumping to humans does not always mean human to human transmission is possible.

[redis_mlc]

I don't agree. SARS-1 and SARS-2 are both highly contagious and had similar effects on decimating hospital staff.

You can read the effect on Toronto hospitals in 2002 by SARS-1 to get an idea of the panic it caused, wiping out whole ICU teams. Just like SARS-2 (Covid-19.)

[FooBarWidget]

Wiping out ICU teams is a property of lethality, not so much contagiousness. Only 8000 people was infected by sars 1 and China didn’t even have lockdown at the time. The contagiousness and long incubation times are key this time. Otherwise you may as well compare it to Ebola.

[redis_mlc]

FYI: there was a powerful, contagious flu-like disease circulating already in SE Asia between Dec. 6 and Dec. 15.

If anybody in public healthcare seriously wants to know more, contact me and I'll narrow down the dates, symptoms and locations and you can verify if it was corona virus or a different illness.

[redis_mlc]

Fascinating ... the dates Dec. 1, Dec. 6 and Dec. 16 are mentioned in this article, which almost match the flu dates I mentioned above:

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/chinas-devas...

Based on those dates, it's possible Covid-19 was on Chinese airliners as early as Dec. 1 - 8. Wuhan has an international airport that connects to Shanghai (Pudong), which is a major international hub.

So that moves the onset possibly back into November.

Researchers should be looking at Chinese death certificates for the month of November if they're looking for patient zero.

(I've read about one unconfirmed US flu case in October that sounds like corona, but I'll look around for some more info.)

[not_exactly__]

Not to mention there are direct flights from Wuhan to both LA and SFO (China Southern). Wuhan may not be very well known in the US, but it is absolutely a major city in China. I’m not sure what the best comparison would be, but maybe a St Louis or Denver of sorts.

[FooBarWidget]

Haven't the Chinese already traced a case back to November? That the earliest case is from November is not exactly news nowadays, is it?

[baybal2]

Yes, Chinese interneters set the date to mid November when the number of cases exceeded 200, and somebody first put an official notice

[powerapple]

Apparently a lady heard it appeared in September, somewhere not in China.

[agent00f]

The comment you replied to asked for a source, the fact you can't produce any despite all this bluster is revealing.

[DiogenesKynikos]

Any source for your claims? What you're saying contradicts all the reporting, including from Caixin, which has seemed to have the inside scoop throughout this crisis.

The first patient was admitted to the hospital on 16 December 2019,[1] and the first lab result indicating a SARS-like coronavirus came back on 27 December 2019.[2]

> First confirmed cases were early December.

Those cases were not known about in early December. They were discovered after-the-fact, when people went over hospital records to try to find earlier, previously undetected cases. As I wrote above, nobody had any idea that there was a new coronavirus until 27 December, when the first lab results came in.

1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

2. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-29/in-depth-how-early-s...

3. The Caixin article is reprinted here: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-...