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by elcritch 2266 days ago
You're getting downvoted, but while it may not be pretty to think about, these other factors are important to consider. Even the expected years of life lost (which are factors found in medical literature). Unfortunately COVID-19 does affect younger people to a degree (40-50's) who could live healthy productive lives for decades, so it's not going to be pretty numbers.

Still "Flattening the curve" seems to be the only thing epidemiologists are focusing on, but ignoring the death toll from unemployment, domestic abuse, depression/suicide, and others. Not to mention how many people will die from exposure to being evicted due to being unable to pay rent or hunger from buying groceries. Or the long term effects of depressions or social anxiety from being locked down, etc. These are real factors.

The CDC's lack of modeling of these factors is disconcerting, if not bordering on _incompetence_. I've been searching for models (preferably using STAN or similar to calculate adjusted statistical likelihoods) to estimate holistic effect of lockdowns on overall death rates adjusted for those factors. So far I haven't found anything, or very limited research.

It sucks, but as a society, we have to be able to critically analyze the situation, including the tough factors of triage at a societal level.