[koheripbal]

You cannot simply extrapolate trends ad infinitum.

You have to look at the vulnerable industries, and assume percentage of those jobs will be lost, up to the limit of that industry.

...but certainly, the longer everyone stays home, the more industries will be sucked into the void.

Ultimately, we will have no choice but to advise people to go back to their lives, despite the risks.

The government does not have the ability to bail out every single industry in the economy.

[apatters]

You can't extrapolate trends ad infinitum, and I didn't.

I extrapolated them for four weeks.

All we need is four more weeks of what has happened for the last two (and most authorities are saying that the lockdowns will last at least this long), and we're at the peak of the Great Depression, unemployment-wise at least.

Moreover, by assuming constant linear growth, I was being optimistic about the slope of the curve. The second week of jobless claims was worse than the first.

[bfrog]

108m Americans work in the service sector.