[MiroF]

> Our concern is a supply chain meltdown when you have millions infected and sick.

This is an absurdist prediction - we are looking at maximum 2 million 75+ year olds dying with some much smaller number of people of different ages. This is the group least likely to be involved in the day-to-day functioning of our supply chains.

Honestly, where are people coming up with these doomsday predictions?

[TeMPOraL]

Have you watched the supply chains? Spikes in demand followed by demand collapse have already wreaked havoc. From what I read from people from that business, there's total chaos.

And even if the elderly bear most of the risk, countries are shutting down completely for their sake - and that means companies stopping operations, leading to further disruptions. Also this article: US already has 10 million unemployed, and it barely started to consider doing anything about the virus.

I think this is closest to actual doomsday since the peak of Cold War.

[Frost1x]

If you were to value all human lives equally, the Cold War potential threat was far greater than this. The actual realized causality count is of course orders of magnitude lower for the Cold War.

In terms of being an existential threat to human life, this virus as we currently understand it (ignoring all the unknowns) isn't a real Doomsday. Historically it's merely a blip on the radar of awful things humanity has went through, endured, and survived leading to where we are now. People survived the bubonic plague and continued on. It was awful and they lacked much of the knowledge and understanding we now have to better curb these threats.

The vast majority of the population is going to be fine, healthy, and moving along. There may be economic restructuring after this (I don't see it as likely though). You're probably going to see a drop in quality/standard of living at large no matter what, but the majority of our infrastructure will still be there and the majority of the people who operate it will still be there. It's not like humans won't be around, infrastructure will be destroyed, our acquired knowledge and skills are lost...

The absolute worst case scenario is that this virus mutates regularly (perhaps with higher mortality rates) and we aren't able to manage it. Each mutation comes with significant risk of death. Although the risk could low for many, multiple exposures to relatively low risk leads to higher more realized unwelcome outcomes. This would absolutely force a complete systematic restructuring of societies, how we interact, how we work, etc. long term.

Based on what we currently know this will be a fairly long decline in productivity that most will be immune to and life will probably continue on mostly as is. It all boils down to questions about who deserves what, who takes the hit on losses, etc. Right now it looks like your average US citizen will see a larger decline in standards of living and our economic system will further consolidate/concentrate wealth and power barring some sort of (hopefully non-violent) social revolution.

[throwanem]

As isolation habits go, it's slightly safer to overindulge in news than in liquor, but not much less unhealthy.

If you're worried about a real collapse, then do what you can to prepare, sure - ideally remembering that, by all the accounts of people who've been through such collapses and later told the tale, what really gets you through in the long run isn't liquor, smokes, or bullets, but relationships.

You don't need to soak in the news to do that. Indeed, soaking in the news probably makes it harder. Anxiety can get paralyzing, and there's a lot in the news to be anxious about. But it's also worth remembering that what's going to happen is going to happen whether you obsess over it or not. It can't be hurried, helped, or fought. It can only be dealt with as best you can, and from here it seems like you're not really helping yourself by what you're doing just now. So, maybe consider trying doing something else for a while? You know, just to see if it feels any different.

[MiroF]

For food, fuel, and other essentials? If stuff like that starts getting disrupted to the point that people are actually dying, you can bet that we are going to lift our shelter-in-place. I have seen no evidence of that being borne out at all.

> I think this is closest to actual doomsday since the peak of Cold War

I agree, but I think that more speaks to the relative safety and stability of the post-Cold War era than any particularly huge danger from the pandemic. 2 million deaths is terrifying and we should do what we can to prevent it - I don't see any evidence that this is the lead up to general societal collapse or even substantial supply chain disruption for things you need to survive.

[digitaltrees]

Because countries are shutting their borders and we have a tightly coupled network. Add to that decades of streamlining logistics to avoid any inventory and consistent dividends and stock buy backs that make scaling up additional capacity difficult and you can quickly see disruption.

If this triggers a financial crisis, then working capital can disappear so even if capacity exists liquidity won’t and there won’t be enough purchase power to float inventory.

I worked at the best corporate bankruptcy law firm in the country in 2008. I can tell you there was a real concern that lack of liquidity would result in grocery stores not having food for extended periods from lacking working capital. That can happen fast.

[Izkata]

You're not accounting for complications from the 10% or so that require medical intervention, who are largely working age.

[jusssi]

Not to mention that when the healthcare system gets overloaded with all the covid-cases, everything else that requires medical intervention also becomes dangerous.