[fock]

sick of hearing this silliness: https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronaviru... so yeah, they barely test half the dead people (which are still double the normal deaths...). And A LOT of covid patients means a lot of deaths as well, bc. at 1.3% (Diamond Princess, where people are still not through it/dying) to 5% letality, the thing IS BAD.

[StillBored]

But again, what was the age group on Diamond Princes? Because it matters, the death rate goes up with age. 5% says the average age was something like 50.

[MiroF]

A cruise ship skews older and most people from Diamond Princess should be out of it by now.

[fock]

with emphasis on "should". Most people started to argue with the low number of deaths, when there were 5. Now there are at least 10 and about 100 people unaccounted in statistics...

[MiroF]

Hm - 10 as of a few weeks or so ago, I doubt we will see any more and certainly not 2-3x more. That 10/800 = 1.2% and the cruise ship skewed older. 100 people entirely unaccounted for would only impact spread rates, not CFR, unless the unaccounted people are more likely to have died than those from the ship writ large.

I don't see where people are getting 5% from. 1% is already 10x worse or so than the flu, I don't see the need to exaggerate the facts.

[Izkata]

There was an 11th death Apr 1, and 113 of the 712 are still active, not recovered. Didn't find from a quick search how critical or mild they are, but it is concerning that it's been this long...

[MiroF]

That doesn't appear to be entirely correct - from my research, it appears to actually have been about 12 deaths (the last on March 28th from https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_10599.html) but there appear to be multiple sources on this.

Regardless, I'll admit that I was wrong - there are still people dying. Regardless, we'd have to get about 3-4x the number of deaths we've had so far to reach 5% - and from the sources I can find most of those remaining cases are non-critical (though there could be even a doubling).