[airstrike]

Not really, sadly. I just heard him on an internal conference call we have twice a week, so don't really have a link to provide but don't think he's published his views in writing just yet. I expect a lot of similar predictions to come out now that the unemployment claims number is out (as of ~1 hour ago)

For general views of very smart people on the economy and markets, I recommend Bloomberg Surveillance every morning on the Bloomberg app, radio and on your favorite podcast app

[mehrdadn]

Ah I see, okay thank you.

[wayoutthere]

This kind of info usually circulates in the corporate world for a week before it hits the wider media zeitgeist. My company has been holding weekly analyst briefings on what to expect.

Right now, the sources I have say to expect to be WFH and "socially distanced" until July or August at the earliest. Restaurants will probably start slowly opening back up around then, but conferences or sporting events are going to be cancelled through at least the end of the year. A single sporting event or conference can lead to thousands of new infections, so none of that stuff is coming back for a long time.

Past that, we were told to expect 3 waves of economic pain: one right now when everyone loses their job, another big layoff cycle in 3 months once companies that can WFH start to adjust for structural changes, and a third wave near the end of the year after people start to seriously curtail consumption in response to the first two waves and global demand falls off a cliff.

This information has been getting priced into the market for a few weeks, so none of it is new. But these numbers are just starting to hit the wider media and your average American is starting to panic because we're looking at a decade or more of hurt before this is all over.

[dataflow]

Great info (and scary), thank you. Is this based on assumptions that have a decent potential to not hold true, like e.g. lack of vaccines and adequate testing? Or does this assume those will happen in the next (say) ~year? And would you know if there are predictions on whether e.g. housing prices might fall?

[grey-area]

I'm more pessimistic in the short term than this (particularly for the US, which still doesn't have a national lockdown), but more optimistic in the long term.

Despite our best efforts, this thing is burning through entire populations, and will do so quickly (within a couple of months globally, except some places in asia who escaped the first wave but are now seeing more). Every active person leaving home is going to be exposed in short order, thus infecting their household, and even in lockdowns people need to eat. Almost every country waited too long to lock down, and large countries still haven't effectively done so.

The downside of that is a horrific global death toll (1 million confirmed cases this month, maybe 10 million infected? megadeath next month?). The upside is that we will at some point reach herd immunity and/or develop and manufacture a vaccine and economies will restart.

Looking at Italy I find it hard to believe that almost every household has not been exposed by now - all it takes is one infected during the lockdown and the entire household gets it. Their new cases are declining and their deaths are flat already.

There will be substantial economic damage but I think the recovery may be quite fast as there will be a clear cause which has been addressed (probably by a rushed vaccine currently in trials - there are lots globally). I don't believe a lockdown of more than 2 months is acceptable to most, even with a 1% risk of death, and such lockdowns require the consent of the population to function.

[standardUser]

"Every active person leaving home is going to be exposed in short order"

This virus is not transmitted via magic. Even basic precautions lower the transmission rate considerable. Most places are now taking precautions that are far beyond basic.

[grey-area]

Most places are seeing increasing rates of infection, even in spite of extreme measures. I'm not suggesting it's magic, just that it's more infectious than a common cold, which is pretty hard to avoid in winter where I live at least.

I agree that could be worded better (I'll leave it up since you've replied), but I meant it's hard to avoid if you're going shopping every few days - people are not good at infection control and many are pretty much asymptomatic for a long period. Lockdowns are controlling the rate of spread, not stopping it, despite best efforts, and will I suspect be released after a few months for that reason - because it has infected > 50% anyway and those people are allowed out after testing.

[standardUser]

Unfortunately, it's really, really hard to say anything concrete about the transmission rate. Testing is different everywhere, and usually far too limited, and we know there are a lot of asymptomatic cases. But, if we accept some big caveats, it certainly looks like the transmission rates in locked down regions are dramatically reduced. People are still going to the store, ordering food delivery, going for walks and jogs, etc. A big chunk of people are actually still going to work everyday for essential services. But nonetheless, transmission appears to be way down, even in Italy, which had one of the worst starts of any country.

[samstave]

Im even way more pessimistic than this...

>such lockdowns require the consent of the population to function.

NO, they require they compliance of a population when faced with the military and martial law -- Which was already intimated directly as not being needed "just yet" by Trump.

Massive rumors of troop deployments and getting ready - videos of trains with tons of equipment being moved around the country.

Videos of the suposed "testing centers" setup at various places were the military setup huge tents - and they are completely empty, as well as fema delivering refridgerated trailers to these places...

They are planning on mass death coming very soon.

Media claiming that the hospitals are a "war zone" and guys went to these hospitals and they were empty.