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by datingscientist 2267 days ago
For an unsecured lender, this is basically the apocalypse. Let's do the math - numbers are US, but most of the major Western economies are going through some version of this.

- 30% household unemployment

- 90+ day shutdown of most retail / service businesses

- Implicit Mortgage and Rent holidays (no enforcement)

- Other household assets are tanking (stocks, real estate)

- Small business restart will be brutal, since the personal balance sheets & credit of owners are getting devastated

So... payment on unsecured loans... bwhahahahah. Speaking as a former banker, I'm guessing what - a 40% delinquency rate during Q2 and part of Q3? We're not just talking about the unemployed people - others have hours cut, money lost on investments, business slowdowns, etc.

Not to mention most of the population probably won't give a damm about you trashing their credit score at this point. What's the point? It's all crap now...

Oh wait... I haven't gotten to the best part. If a loan is 60 days delinquent, these guys have to buy it back per the terms of their deal. That's why they froze this thing...

At this point, it is a race between their cash reserves (what % they held back to support buybacks) and the unknown peak of a massive wave of 60 day delinquencies....

1 comments

> That's why they froze this thing...

You're picturing it "too honest": there are allegations of misconduct which I am afraid (given the bad quality of the recent official posts) might be true, see for example:

https://kristapsmors.substack.com/p/covid-19-first-p2p-victi...

Hmm... I agree that looks sketchy.