It seems like the most critical time to shelter in place is one or two weeks before the date predicted, considering the lag time between peak number of infections and peak medical resources used.
the peak occurs because transmission has been stopped. the reason you come to that conclusion is because the incubation period is 14 days, so once you get widespread isolation/quarantine/shelter in place of the population, then the peak will occur 14 days later. if you dont isolate then your peak is only reached when there are no more hosts, either through killing them off or herd immunity preventing further transmission. of course there would be a considerable difference in the size of the peak between these 2 methods.
so I guess I'm saying you can't say "the peak is in 2 weeks, isolate now" rather it is "if we isolate on $DATE then we will see a peak in $DATE+2 weeks"
so I guess I'm saying you can't say "the peak is in 2 weeks, isolate now" rather it is "if we isolate on $DATE then we will see a peak in $DATE+2 weeks"