[nod]

These IHME predictions are actually based on deaths, not on tests. Also, please look at the wide error bars on the original data source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Of course there are still a lot of variables - one of the better criticisms is that it assumes that states lock down with the same strength, just at different dates. But it's the presentation of this Axios piece that is dangerous here: It strips out all the uncertainty estimates and presents exact numbers as if they were precise.