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by tensor 2275 days ago
China's reporting in no way made it seem less urgent. The reported fatality rate hasn't significantly changed from their reports.
2 comments

They're reporting 2.5k deaths in Wuhan, while most estimates and other sources put it closer to 20k+. A factor of 10 isn't much of a change?
Everything I've seen matches up with the Chinese data (when adjusting for test coverage for mild symptom patients). Where are you seeing this 10x higher number?
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-...

> Wuhan residents are increasingly skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party’s reported coronavirus death count of approximately 2,500 deaths in the city to date, with most people believing the actual numbers is at least 40,000

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-...

> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival. By that estimate, 42,000 urns would be given out in the 12-day period.

Just a few sources, you can find many others if you look though.

The two links seems to point to the same source, and:

> Trucks dropped off roughly 2,500 urns on Wednesday and again on Thursday local time to one of the eight local funeral homes, a driver told Chinese media outlet Caixin. The news site also published another photo showing 3,500 urns stacked inside the facility. The number of urns that arrived in that one funeral home was far greater than the city's official overall death COVID-19 toll.

Note that the numbers given are for EMPTY urns.

> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival.

Note that this is based on "some random Wuhan residents playing numbers on social network".

> some random Wuhan residents playing numbers on social network

Yeah, when the government hides information and imprisons journalists, that's all we're left with, isn't it?

They're not the same source, by the way. They're multiple different community sources reporting the same information.

I don't deal in speculation and rumours sorry. The 2-3% assuming you have medical treatment has held true. The 10+% hospitalization has held true.

The lack of response from the US is in no way due to China's reporting, it's due to the US propaganda and incompetence.

In December, China's influence caused the WHO -not- to report human to human transmission. This was despite the known infection of healthcare workers, and counter to the reports made from Taiwan.

Human-human transmission is one of the fundamental elements used to determine the urgency of an outbreak.

I'm looking at the timeline on wikipedia, and it looks like you should be saying 'January' instead of 'December':

Dec 30: The Wuhan Municipal Health Committee reported to the WHO that 27 people had been diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown cause.

Dec 31: China contacts the WHO and informs them of "cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan".

Jan 4: The WHO waited for China to release information about the "mysterious new pneumonia virus".[51] The United Nations agency activated its incident-management system at the country, regional and global level and was standing ready to launch a broader response if it was needed.

Jan 9: The WHO confirmed that the novel coronavirus had been isolated from one person who had been hospitalised. The WHO also reported that Chinese authorities had acted swiftly, identifying the novel coronavirus within weeks of the onset of the outbreak, with the total number of positively tested people being 41. The first death from the virus occurred in a 61-year-old man who was a regular customer at the market.

Jan 14: Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit said that there had been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus, mainly small clusters in families, adding that "it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission"

Jan 20: After two medical staff were infected in Guangdong, China announced that the virus was human-to-human transmissible … the WHO has said [it] is deeply concerning and could signal evidence of a much larger outbreak.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%932...

China probably could have informed people earlier, but it seems easier to not tell the WHO than to pressure the WHO to keep a secret. Also, there's a difference between possible human-to-human and confirmed human-to-human transmission.

Hello, would you please link us to the report made from Taiwan which reports H2H transmission in Dec 2019? My Google-fu failed me on this, thanks!
https://www.ft.com/content/2a70a02a-644a-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6...

Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning: relationship with Beijing blamed for not sharing alert over human-to-human infection

without paywall: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-24/taiwan...

"We asked them whether there's a possibility of human-to-human transmission. We indeed asked them and reminded them of the matter," Chou said. He said the WHO confirmed it had received the letter but did not respond to it.

Thanks for the non paywall-d link, that's an interesting read, also previous discussion on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22712971

Kudos to Taiwan for reminding WHO an unknown virus, just like any other virus, may possibly be H2H-transmissible!