[twblalock]

When we look back on this in a few years I think we will see the virus shutdowns accelerated some trends that were already slowly happening:

- The demise of many traditional retail businesses

- The concentration of surviving retail businesses into big box stores and higher-end retailers (like the stores at Westfield malls)

- Increased usage of online shopping and gig delivery services

- Even more growth for Amazon, Walmart, and Target

I would expect, in general, to see more concentration in most industries after the virus shutdowns end. Retail is the most obvious example.

[unlinked_dll]

> The concentration of surviving retail businesses into big box stores and higher-end retailer

$/ft^2 is the metric to look for. That correlates with "high end" retail (high dollar items that take up less floor/warehouse space).

I think we could see a boon of brick and mortars that are smaller and more optimized. Just an anecdote, I know of a local music shop that cut its floorspace in half about 5 years ago and started offering staple items as a subscription service (e.g. reeds, guitar strings, bow rosin, whatever), while the bigger items had their shelf space rented out to vendors rather than taking commission on sales. Another anecdote, StitchFix and Bonobos have both provided solutions to the problem of selling clothes without stocking various sizes at a retail location.

There's a lot of opportunity to innovate retail in my opinion. The issue has always been the sales model, and I think that focusing on "big box" stores is wrong - they're just more equipped to weather the storm. Department stores died a decade ago, it just took this long for their bodies to hit the ground. Same for big box retail.

[jolmg]

> - Even more growth for Amazon, Walmart, and Target

Why Walmart and Target? Aren't they also traditional retail?

[drusepth]

Both Walmart and Target have taken huge strides in moving their business online, and in a lot of features/perks are comparable to Amazon now (especially in price and shipping speeds; Walmart price-matches Amazon and gives free two-day shipping on every order over $35 without a Prime-esque requirement, for example).

[toomuchtodo]

One can also place orders at Walmart and Target, and pickup the next day; just pull into parking spot, order is brought to the car. Best Buy is also offering "to the car" order delivery during the pandemic.

Amazon delivery times are currently 1 week+ in many locations.

[twblalock]

They are examples of traditional retail businesses that have adjusted well to the new world of online shopping.

They are also benefitting from another trend, which is that big-box stores in general are outlasting smaller stores. Another example would be Home Depot and Lowes thriving while smaller hardware stores fail. Shopping at a big box store is often more convenient than making multiple trips to smaller or more specialized retailers.

[derimagia]

They have pushed digital pretty hard. Walmart even has https://www.walmartlabs.com/.

Both have been adapting pretty well to Amazon and offer 2 day shipping options as well.

[taway555]

My family has ordered online from all three of these retailers during this pandemic. Walmart and Target may have roots in traditional retail, but their online pipeline is quite robust these days.

[aphextron]

>Why Walmart and Target? Aren't they also traditional retail?

Walmart is the #2 e-commerce retailer after Amazon.

[hvs]

- The shuttering of many media outlets.