[usaar333]

Again, I don't subscribe to the hypothesis that flu iir = covid iir, but what you are seeing isn't incompatible with that hypothesis. The hypothesis is that iir is the same, but covid has a way higher transmission rate.

So what you are seeing in Italy (or Wuhan for that matter) is a symptom of:

1. A 4 month flu season compacted into a month 2. Hospitals collapsing from the load pulling death rate way up. 3. A lack of vaccination (which limits the deaths/year due to flu)

Honestly, we won't know what the case was until a few months from now when broad, randomized seriological tests are run.

[gpderetta]

In absolute values, it has already killed 30% more people than influenza. So, yes, I would say it is quite incompatible.

And of course lack of vacination is an important factor, but you can't exclude it.

edit: also even if it would kill in percentage the same amount of infected, an higher infection rate will converge to an higher total infected percentage of the population, so an higher absolute number of dead and critically ill.