[dragonwriter]

> Additionally, flu CFR is reduced by targetted vaccination of the most vulnerable people

Yes, and COVID-19 would be a lot less bad if we had a broadly effective (even if as imperfect as the season at flu vaccine tends to be) generally available vaccine that would naturally be more likely to be taken by the most vulnerable, but alas we don't, which reinforces the point that COVID-19 is, in the real world, significantly worse than the flu, even if you could construct a counterfactual scenario where that would be less true despite the diseases each retaining their intrinsic traits.

[usaar333]

Right and the "flu iir = covid iir" hypothesis would still lead to the real world pandemic being far worse (that's pretty obvious to anyone). You still have a disease with no vaccine that transmits extremely fast.

What would change though if that were true is that the calculus could shift away from locking down (SIP) to limited social distancing measures (to reduce r0) and a complete isolation of your most vulnerable populations. Basically, go for some sort of herd immunity if you can keep the herd's IIR below 0.01% or so.