[Hokusai]

> All the Nordic countries underestimated the pandemic.

All countries underestimated the pandemic. From China to the United Kingdom, USA or Italy, every country underestimated it. The main difference is the attitude once lock downs are needed.

Maybe South Korea was the exception. But, South Korea is a high-income country in a permanent war with its north brother. The country is probably prepared for a biological attack similar to a pandemic. And, even South Korea seems to have lowered its standards and cases are growing up.

> I fear Sweden is still basing their approach on those optimistic models

Yes. It is surprising how everybody is blinded by exponential growth. "It is just 10 cases, it is just 50 cases, it is just 125 cases, it is just ... oh shit!"

[gurkendoktor]

There is at least one country that didn't underestimate the virus - Taiwan, which was way ahead of the WHO at every step: warned about human-to-human transmission at the end of 2019(!), quickly ramped up travel restrictions, immediately mobilized to mass-produce masks.

The vast majority of new cases in Taiwan are imported now, and everyone coming back has to self-quarantine for 14 days.

[tooltalk]

how about Vietnam (174 cases and no death so far)? It shares physical border with China and the country's health system, much less response to the pandemic, threadbare; yet they have fewer cases than Taiwan.

IMO, I think it's very difficult to draw any important lessons from countries that are warmer climate like Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, or Thailand.

[gurkendoktor]

The grandparent was talking about taking the risk seriously - you can say that about Taiwan no matter its climate.

My gut feeling is that the culture of wearing masks, not shaking hands etc. is just as important of a factor as the climate. I guess we'll find out by observing cooler Japan.