[vladd]

The economy is going to change, for sure. But different verticals are going to react differently to this state of intermittent lock-downs. Travel-related industries (hotels, restaurants, airlines, oil) are going downwards. Food delivery and gym@home equipment is going to sky-rocket. At the end of the day, it's a gamble to state where overall GDP or stock-market is ending, but over time increased air-born disease risks are going to facilitate new industries to come to life, and old ones to offset. Just like it always happened.

Like Warren Buffett says, "From a standing start 240 years ago, Americans have combined human ingenuity with a market system to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers...". There is nothing to suggest this is suddenly going to stop moving forward, even as we adapt to these new realities.

[empath75]

I’ll just give one example of how things will change — massive amounts of women are going to leave the workforce. Schools and day cares are not going to be reliable for the foreseeable future and women are more likely to quit their jobs and stay home if that becomes necessary.

[vladd]

There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.

[alexhutcheson]

> the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up

Intuitively, you'd expect that, but the data from previous epidemics show the opposite effect:

- http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_...

- https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births

[frosted-flakes]

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

[evv]

Something I saw on Twitter the other day:

"in 9 months there will be a baby boom, entirely consisting of firstborn children"

[swsieber]

There are various memes floating around about how there's going to be a surge of kids conceived during this quarantine/social distancing times.

In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home.

OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.

[core-questions]

> I know people with children who are going crazy

I am going crazy, but my kids are also learning an absolute ton from having all this 1:1 attention from someone who is totally invested in them. I've seen big strides from each of them. Their character is really coming out.

I'm one to look for silver linings; this is surprisingly one of them.

[shahbaby]

Most people are desperately looking to the past for guidance on what the future will bring.

[x3n0ph3n3]

The same reason that there are spikes in child births 9 months after a long snowstorm.