[royroyroys]

A physician from Korea recently did an AMA on Reddit and said: 'It is hard for anyone to predict what will happen in the future in this volatile situation. However, South Korean experts think that if the situation doesn't get better within the month, it will last up to 6 months. If the situation exacerbates within 6 months, it's apparent that this will become a much more difficult scenario than previously imagined. There would be a high chance of economic repercussions of this outbreak. Moreover, the resources of medical personnel may be entirely exhausted in this situation, which would lead to more deaths. In South Korea alone, 300,000 deaths would be a fair prediction from such a scenario.'[0]

Seems too early to conclude this has been contained yet.

0: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fo4pj4/im_joon...

[bagacrap]

honest question: why do we keep looking to physicians for guidance? They are highly trained in case by case treatment but not epidemiology. They are not taught to make population wide predictions about the future, they just diagnose and treat. They have access to some anecdata and that's about it. Professors, epidemiologists, and medical researchers have a lot more training and practice in the arena we care about.

[tim333]

In general they have some idea what they are on about re diseases. Also they tend to be fairly down to earth in that they deal with patients directly rather than abstractions.

[mlrtime]

"it's hard to predict" and "if this then that" doesn't really help and just adds to peoples anxiety and paranoia.