Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by standardUser 2269 days ago
The testing rate to date in Spain is about 2x that of the US per capita. In Italy it is closer to 4x. That, plus the complete failure of the US to suppress transmission rates throughout huge parts of the population, must be taken in to account.
2 comments
leereeves 2269 days ago
Are you using the latest numbers? More tests are being done every day now in the US than had been done total about a week ago, and we're up to 520,000 tests.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/12432908485082603...

link
standardUser 2268 days ago
Yes, for about 3-4 days the US has had a test are that is not dramatically behind other developed nations.
link
downerending 2269 days ago
> complete failure of the US to suppress transmission rates

Hmm. Our curves look exactly like Spain and Italy, and indeed almost every exposed country appears to be on the same curve (with differing lags).

A few countries seem to be doing significantly better, but it's far from clear why.

link
standardUser 2268 days ago
These curves are all lagging by weeks, and are influenced heavily by test rates and transmission rates. Our tests rates are low (until about 3 days ago) and our transmission rates are high (because many populous states have issues no shelter-at-home directives). You don't have to wait long to see more clearly, just about a week.
link
downerending 2268 days ago
To clarify, I'm talking about the death curves--these seem to be the most credible statistics. Looking at those, most of the curves do not look significantly different. The exceptions are (perhaps) China, South Korea, and Japan.

China's credibility on mass death statistics is a bit shaky, and Japan has had a serious moral hazard given their 2020 Olympic hosting (and there has been a sudden blip in Tokyo in the last day or two).

Looking at the curves, though, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that that of the USA, however bad, is not obviously different than those of most countries currently undergoing the epidemic.

Perhaps some think the US should be significantly better than most countries. I'm not really a believer in exceptionalism myself.

link