[triceratops]

> Transmissibility is a major change [0]

I'm not sure you read your own link correctly.

"New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said."

[jtbayly]

I'm sorry. You are correct. Although Ferguson attributes most of the benefit to the lockdown, he does acknowledge a change of R0 further revising the numbers down.

Where I got confused was attributing some of the things said by Gupta (behind the Oxford model) to Ferguson (behind the Imperial College model).