[triceratops]

But it seems like he's revising the R0 estimate upwards, rather than downwards. From the same article:

"New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said."

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-i...

[salmon30salmon]

Yeah, revising the R0 upwards is exactly what you would expect to result in a faster infection rate. This means that more people have already been infected and were fine, and that we are at the peak before herd immunity starts to drastically impact the R0 downwards.