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by sm0ss117
2277 days ago
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> They have a good point about missing data, but they're glossing over the fact the fatality rate goes up drastically if the medical system fails. If the medical system starts to fail it's not just COVID-19 you get to worry about, if the incapacity rate is high enough you get to start worrying about things like: how long will it take for my electricity to get fixed, how long will my heat be out for, where's the food for the local supermarket, when will my pharmacy get my prescriptions in stock, etc. Second order effects start getting noticeable quick in a society as connected and just in timed as ours. |
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Most first world countries have hardened, resilient, and distributed infrastructure that takes little resources to maintain. The more your economy revolves around non-essential goods and services, the more headroom there is for dealing with failure.
The second order effects of breakdowns in supply chain are real. But they are most effectively dealt with by JIT and connectivity. The US is changing significant parts of it’s economy to deal with this shock: and it looks to be effectively redeploying resources without any leadership at the top.
Look historically at whole countries hit by war or disaster, and see how they managed.
Imagine if tomorrow all medicines are unavailable, and all hospitals destroyed? Many people would die, but the vast majority of the economy would keep running and the vast majority of citizens would remain healthy. Sure, we all could have stocked up on some resources better, but there are heavy costs associated with over stocking and over planning.