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by humblebee
2279 days ago
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My friends and I had the same question. I did a little searching and found an interesting paper[0]. The oldest reference it has is from 2009[1] [0] https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/jo... [1] Kelso J,Milne G,Kelly H (2009) Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health 9: 117. |
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> The idea that within a week or two of a pandemic's initiation we could quench it by saturating a ring of at-risk population with oseltamivir, achieving 90% coverage and high compliance, and at the same time impose movement restrictions and social distancing—all this depending on the causal virus having an Ro <2·0—is simply fanciful.
[0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067...
It's also referenced here [1] in the context of the SARS pandemic, but I'd argue that the usage isn't quite the same.
[1] https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265