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mvanaltvorst
2283 days ago
You can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.
2 comments
perl4ever
2283 days ago
My mathematical intuition may not be any good, but if you are saying it will be a sigmoid type curve, would doubling the time be plausible?
But this is not in disagreement with my comment, since this would involve slowing down.
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jgalt212
2283 days ago
Tell that to the "shutdown the world people". The entire basis of this response is the exponential function.
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2snakes
2283 days ago
With physical distancing, it may be exponential at first, but then taper off, like it did in Wuhan:
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632...
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But this is not in disagreement with my comment, since this would involve slowing down.