You can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.
Yeah, but that seems like a completely different situation. Wasn't the thing that happened then the dynamic where the sickest people were sent away from the front to the hospitals where they spread it, while the mild cases kept fighting?
Do people in Brazil and Australia use Air Conditioners? Air Conditioners reduce both temperature and humidity and make a more favorable environment for COVID-19 transmission. The use of Air Conditioners in very low in India because only the richest can afford them.
Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates.
Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet
If you don’t test, then you cannot confirm someone has the virus. Thus, your confirmed cases remains low.
India has not shown up on the map yet, but I suspect that the virus is picking up steam. Every week, the numbers slowly increase. And by the time someone is confirmed with the virus, then they probably already infected 10 to 20 other people.
While I don't know for sure what
ganeshkrishnan intended, I'm going to take from the name and comment ganesh knows both countries. Perhaps what Ganesh meant is the while the population density in those Australian cities is very low, Australia has a highly urbanised population. ~11% of India's population are urbanised, 2/5 ths of australia's population is in just two cities. You hear figures for 80 or 90% of Australia's population is urbanised, but I don't have a cite.
I didn't mean the population density. I meant the density of urban vs rural spread. Australia has the world's highest urban ratio (around 96%) and extremely well connected. India is more spread out.
I think the real reason why India has a low count (for now!) is because it's a world away from China in terms of people travelling to each other while Australia is very deeply connected to Australia (students + mining export).
As I understand it, hotter weather helps to prevent the progression of the disease from the upper respiratory to the lower respiratory. When the disease moves to the lower respiratory area, patients typically need hospitalization and a ventilator, and are at a much higher risk of death. If you look at the death rates in Brazil and Australia, they are lower than in the northern hemisphere. Likewise, countries with ample spare ICU beds and ventilators (like Germany) have lower death rates than countries that don't (like Italy).
I think we should encourage people to turn off their Air Conditioners, especially in indoor places like malls and bars where people gather. ACs reduce both temperature and humidity and make a more favorable environment for the virus.
Heat, cold, sun, snow, and humidity don't have any effect on the virus (according to WHO). It was spreading rapidly in the Southern Hemisphere when it was Summer there.
I think we will only have a definite answer by May/June for this question. The close cousin of nCov, the SARS Cov-1, had started retreating back in June 2003.
An unscientific observation about "summer" is in the west, schools aren't in session. That might be a very large contributor to the spread of all viruses.
I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and people won't really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts.
Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It's only "summer" for roughly half the planet, right?
A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.
337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.
14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.
So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.