[susanhi]

We have 330 million people in US.

China has ramped their mask production to 200 million masks a day.

Had US government had the foresight and common sense to contract mask manufacturers to even produce half of what China is producing - let’s say 100 million masks, we could have had enough for everyone to have a mask in 3-4 days.

Universal masks for everyone (not only health care workers) together with hygiene protocol should be the way to “flatten the curve”. This would at the very least inhibit spread by those who have coronavirus but don’t know it yet (asymptomatic).

But instead, we’re having these mass shelter in place orders that are destroying our economy, killing businesses and destroying people’s livelihoods.

And I still haven’t heard of massive government contracts to mask manufacturers at the scale needed to provide masks for everyone.

[true_religion]

The problem is that the majority of masks manufactures are in China because that’s where the population regularly wears them for the simple flu.

Understandably the Chinese government would be unwilling to contract their strategic supply of manufacturing out when they need it for themselves.

[mygo]

China offered us lower prices, and the lower prices were great. But right now China isn’t selling us those low priced masks. And we do not need China to produce masks.

We know from basic economic theory that there are manufacturers who would either ramp up production or go into production if the demand increased. With China seemingly out of the US mask business for who knows how long there are also fewer available suppliers — another motivator.

Domestic manufacturers should be happy to take our money — it’s simply a matter of timing. We knew of the mask shortage at least by January. I know this, because I was following the news around then, and went to the local stores and saw with my own eyes that they were out of stock. I could only get them at Home Depot. Not Walgreens, not Target, not Wal Mart. Had we been contracting manufacturers to produce masks starting then, we wouldn’t be experiencing as many shortages as we are today, assuming it doesn’t take 2 months for pre-existing manufacturers to ramp up production.

The botched timing in ramping up domestic production in response to a known shortage is the biggest issue, not the fact that China hasn’t been taking new orders for going on 3 months.

[cvlasdkv]

> We know from basic economic theory that there are manufacturers who would either ramp up production or go into production if the demand increased.

I'd be hesitant to use Economics 101 theories as a way to model the real world. While they are intuitive theories there is a reason they are 101 theories and even "expert" economists are often wrong. :)

These lines of thought are often similar to how people point to evolutionary reasoning because of how intuitively the "survival of the fittest" explanation comes into play (esp. wrt the capitalist society we live in).

[mygo]

That’s like saying we shouldn’t use the theory of gravity to explain why objects drop because it doesn’t hold at the speed of light. Well, it’s a fundamental theory for a reason, and it holds up a whole lot of the time in practice. You don’t need quantum physics to know which direction your phone will go when you let it go.

But in any case, even tossing that basic fundamental economic theory aside, what about the rest of my comment? Is it not true that we would have more masks in production today if we started producing them in January?

If there was enough additional demand, you bet there would be more production. Let’s say someone in January is suddenly willing to write a 10 billion dollar check for 100,000 masks. Not one additional mask would be produced before March? Because people are scrambling to procure masks now. And additional masks are being produced and even donated.

[shalmanese]

"In an interview, Bowen said he could make 1 million masks a day if he ran his machines around the clock, a huge quantity for his firm but an amount that would barely make a dent in global demand. He’s hesitant, however, to ramp up production at the facility outside Fort Worth, scarred by the boom-bust mess that occurred after the swine flu pandemic in 2009."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/15/coronavir...