| It's going to be bad for the following reasons: 1) Governments are not shutting everything down fast enough. Many countries are in the phase of "oh, we only have 200 cases, not a problem, look at Italy". They are just a few weeks behind Italy. 2) Some people, especially young ones, are not following quarantines. All it takes is one super-spreader to start another wave of infection. 3) People will run out of money soon. Governments will have a choice of either a) printing money
b) distributing food and meds to everyone
c) letting people work in masks / googles / gloves
4) Not nearly enough testing is done. South Korea and China are the only countries that did it right. Italy is not testing everyone suspicious (though more than other countries).5) Most countries are not ready for thousands of patients requiring an ICU. No country is ready for a million ICU patients. I think our only hope at this point is one of the drugs works very well. People suck. |
I'm just a rando from the internet but my suspicion is that governments could be intentionally trying to slow the infection rate down rather than stop it completely. If you perform a perfect shutdown with 200 cases, lets say another 400 are identified since, all 600 recover/don't make it, but once you stop the quarantine everything will be back to square one - someone will spread it again eventually.
On the other hand if you let it spread a bit, then shutdown, high but manageable number of people will get sick and recover. (I will be less efficient so some transmission will still occur, eventually ensuring everyone either recovered or died, with as many as possible getting the medical care)