[filleokus]

I have no expertise in any area, but I would like to put down my thoughts for posterity (and feedback).

I think we will see governments in the coming week or two start doing broad randomised samples of the population for antibodies and realise that many many more people have been infected than previously thought.

Meanwhile fears for the economic consequences will grow larger. Also (hopefully) countries like Germany and the UK will not see Italy levels of death and misery.

Around the mid of April when spring in the Northern hemisphere is really kicking off people will have been socially distancing/quaranting for 4-6 weeks and will be really tired of it.

These factors will start to lessen the public support for social distancing and life will start to return to normal. Big events will probably still be canceled, people will not travel for holidays etc but economic activity will start to pick up in some sectors.

Some sectors like hospitality (which employs many low skill workers) will continue to see very low demand until July/August (or possibly even longer). If the important summer season doesn't deliver, these industries will be doomed. While many other sectors will get a swifter recovery.

A litmus test for the general economy will be sales of new iPhones this fall. I suspect it will be slightly below last year, but not like 50%. If it is, my predictions were completely wrong and we are probably much worse off than I expected.

[Unknown_Unknown]

> A litmus test for the general economy will be sales of new iPhones this fall.

I actually would go with the sales numbers for the new PS5 because:

- People who already have a console and are stuck home will not buy a new one because the cash is not there.

- PS5 is a nice to have but not a necessity. Though the iPhone is in the same category but at a much higher price. The PS5 is estimated to be sold at $470-$499 while the new iPhone is much more expensive $799 up to $999.

- People who don't own a console will likely put this off and buy it next year and focus on more necessities.

- The entertainment industry is hit massively by this crisis, and this will be a good indicator of where things are going.

Going back to the main subject, I believe the economy may well bounce back. The issues that may arise may be more related to security and politics. If things go on like this, there could be worldwide riots, or even revolutions in some places.

Let's just hope a vaccine is found quickly.

[biolurker1]

How can UK see less numbers than Italy when they imposed a cuarantine much later at the exponential curve? It's just impossible mathematically

[user5994461]

These are very different cultures. London allows to work from home, or to be off work when sick, and does not force employees to shake hand or hug as a matter of courtesy.

Besides, the UK didn't quarantine officially much later than Italy. Not to mention that the the larger corporations instructed employees to work from home week(s) before the official lockdown.

[biolurker1]

nice story, take a look at the London subway today around the news and social media that falsifies all your hopes. Welcome to the harsh reality and good luck.

[OJFord]

The tube (subway) has been at half capacity for weeks.

If you're seeing photos of it being busy 'around the news and social media', it's either false, or TfL has overdone it in reducing service and so caused usual levels of crowding.

Excerpts from most recent service update email:

> Ridership on our services has fallen dramatically over the last few weeks.

> Some Tube stations that do not interchange with other lines will have to close until further notice

> From today, Friday 20 March, the Waterloo & City line will be closed and there will be no Night Tube or Night Overground services until further notice. Emirates Air Line will have a reduced service until 20:00 today

> From tomorrow, Saturday 21 March, Emirates Air Line will be closed until further notice

> From Monday 23 March, we will also gradually reduce other services across the TfL network

More here: https://tfl.gov.uk/campaign/coronavirus-covid-

[user5994461]

I work in Canary Wharf, the financial district. All the major companies with a skyscraper have their employees working from home now. Quite a few have been doing it for weeks not waiting for the official lockdown. It is a ghost town now.