I also wonder whether this obscured and now accelerated "structural unemployment" - combined with a greater acceptance of remote work - will further shift domestic jobs overseas.
I actually wonder if the pandemic will discourage globalization. The NYT Podcast last week had a great segment on pandemic’s negative effects on globalization, specifically, the global supply chain. It postulates that the longer the supply chain is negatively impacted, the more likely corporations will try to localize.
That being said, 60+ days of lockdown, and Wuhan is only now starting to consider easing restrictions. Other countries’ responses have been half measured compared to China, so we might have a longer period social distancing. CDC estimates will need the current measures through July. Other articles I read say we’ll need on-again off-again social distancing for the next 15 months as the virus surges and wanes.
When corporations finally realize remote work is just as valuable as in office work they'll start to wonder why they are employing US developers for $XX,XXX to $XXX,XXX when they could pay a European developer a low five figure salary in a weaker currency and get the same results.
I'm more worried about tech losing its status as investment of last resort. Who knows how much of the industry is propped up by the flood of easy capital in the last few decades. We just watched all that capital dry up with everyone's liquidity.
Software engineering already went through a wave of offshoring in the 2000s and the whiplash from that was enough to make many a freelancer/agency/startup rich. We learned that many knowledge and service jobs can't economically be offshored because the benefits of locality (whether thats due to the trust from face to face interaction, efficiency of communication, etc, depends on the field) far outweighs the extra cost.
I could see aggregate investment in tech go down, but relative investment no way. Automating all processes with technology gives benefit in all industries. Our skills will be lucrative (relatively speaking) until they figure out how to automate the building of somewhat complex systems.
That being said, 60+ days of lockdown, and Wuhan is only now starting to consider easing restrictions. Other countries’ responses have been half measured compared to China, so we might have a longer period social distancing. CDC estimates will need the current measures through July. Other articles I read say we’ll need on-again off-again social distancing for the next 15 months as the virus surges and wanes.