[nopinsight]

Chance of 1929-style Economic Depression: ~60% (Recession chance: >95%)

Make sure you have the cash to live properly and satisfy urgent needs if necessary over the next 6-12 months or longer. Only invest the remaining in highly-rated bonds or great stocks with long-term resilience.

The world is facing a liquidity crisis, along with both demand & supply shocks that can’t be easily fixed by governments.

We are in a war with the virus and, in most of the world, we are losing.

Global economy can be rescued only if we can mostly mitigate the virus impact. The other 40% is for the case where we found a way to do that and the liquidity injection & fiscal measures are sufficient.

[bequanna]

> Chance of 1929-style Economic Depression: ~60%

How did you arrive at this probability?

[adrianmonk]

You've called it a war, which is just an analogy, but aren't actual wars sometimes good for the economy in certain ways, like generating economic activity? Is there a chance that could apply here?

Though maybe the work of fighting a medical war is more narrow and specialized than the work of fighting a literal war. For example, you cannot institute of draft and make people into doctors in time to fight this. Whereas with an actual war you can stick people on the front lines with a few months of training or put them to work in a factory.

[polishdude20]

Problem is that in war, you can still go outside in your home country and do work.