[chollida1]

Well the stock market is now down below what it was when Trump took office, so we've already lost 3 years worth of gains in one month, which is pretty poor.

Goldman put out a note saying the GDP would dip about 9-10.5% over the first quarter of the year, which is almost the worst we've ever seen. And that's a single quarter, a single quarter. US GDP maybe down 20% by the time this is over.

And keep in mind no doctor that I've talked to thinks this will be over any time before mid 2021.

And probably the worst news is that this is the type of drop that won't be V shaped, for all the talk of 2008, atleast it went down and then went right back up.

Most recession affect a specific geographical area or market sector, This pandemic affects the entire world at the same time, which hasn't really happened since the 1970's gas shortages.

The recovery here will not be V shaped, it will take years and years to recover. People have spent their savings just to survive, governments are delaying tax payments and throwing money at the problem.

This recession/depression will be with us for years to to come and will be the worst thing that anyone alive can remember.

Can anyone make the case that the recovery will be quick? Because I haven't seen anyone make that case yet in a believable way.

[incompatible]

The US stock market always seems wildly optimistic. It was still near its all-time highs while it was already seeming quite likely that the virus would be a serious problem. The Australian stock market is now at 2013 levels.

On the other hand, once there's a sign that the end of the pandemic may be in sight, I expect that the US markets will overreact on the side of optimism, regardless of the actual economic damage that has been done. Bear in mind that governments are adding to the vast stockpile of paper "wealth" that's already out there, and that tends to cause asset inflation.

[hef19898]

No economist, so take that as my personal opinion.

I see two extremes, a restart without to much issues. Laid of people are hired again quick. And after some time of rebuilding savings people start spending again. I would say that is not the most likely outcome, unemployment in the US is rising, this will impact the world economy. Remember, all it took 2008 was mortgage defaults in the US and Lehman Brothers to send world economy into a downward spiral.

On the other extreme, the crisis shows all the cracks in our global economy. Some of them fail. Basic dynamics change, and there is no way of predicting what will happen.

The only constant seems to be cheap money. No idea if that is a good thing...

[streetcat1]

Yes.

The core of the issue is that there is neither a vaccine or a test, combined with asymptomatic carriers. Hence, the only way to combat this virus is a quarantine for the whole population, which causes severe economic damage.

Once you solve either of these issues (e.g. South Korea), there might be a fast recovery. Did South Korea enter into a depression?

In any crisis, it is easy to assume that the last crisis results will occur, but everything depends on the context.