[paulddraper]

And yet, there have only been 36 reported deaths in the entire country.

As long as you test symptomatic cases, the death count should at least be reliable, right?

That a third the deaths of South Korea (who has very aggressively contained).

[mikekchar]

Kind of extrapolating from other countries, I think this points to the number of cases as being about 3-4x higher than reported -- if you are trying to do an apples to apples comparison (which is virtually impossible, but...). Also, I think it's instructive to look at the ratio of people tested to the number of positive results. Wikipedia has about 18k people being tested as of 2 days ago (compared to the nearly 70k people tested in the UK). So the ratio of people infected to the ratio of people tested is fairly close to other places. This indicates to me that the lower numbers of people infected are primarily due to lack of testing.

[paulddraper]

I'm not talking about cases, I'm talking about deaths.

There could plausibly be 10x more cases than reported.

But it's much harder to under-report deaths. And those are low.

[lovemenot]

I don't think your conclusion necessarily follows from your premises.

For instance, if there's a significant difference in testing regime and/or calibration of results.