[brigandish]

Well, I live in Japan and went out properly today for the first time in days, and I can tell you that the R0 is above 1 by eye simply by the way people are behaving.

Social distancing isn't happening much at all, and unless the population is magically becoming immune then there's no way R0 is less than 1. The real questions are whether that will translate into symptomatic and serious cases, and when.

[taeric]

Right. My hypothesis has been that the virus is showing in all places. Something is marking the places with serious cases.