[snewman]

Fivethirtyeight has been surveying epidemiologists:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-expe...

Responding on March 16 and 17 to the question, "how many cases will the US report by March 29", their median prediction was 19,000. As of this moment, early on the 21st, that figure has ALREADY been exceeded (per Worldometer). Based on current growth rates, it appears virtually certain that the actual figure on the 29th will exceed the "best-guess" prediction of every single expert surveyed, and the "high-end" prediction of all but one or two. They've completely whiffed a prediction just a few days out.

This is a novel (no pun intended) situation, even for epidemiologists. To understand it, critical thinking skills are at least as important as subject matter expertise. My read is that the Medium article represents some of the best critical thinking on the subject so far.

[hanche]

Here is a report from a team of epidemiologists at Imperial College, led by Neil Ferguson. The title speaks for itself: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand. The paper is sobering reading. But of course, all the numbers plugged into the model are saddled with huge uncertainty.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...