[slyfocks]

It’s quite alarming that no country (as far as I’m aware) is taking a more rational approach towards coronavirus policy.

Any attempt to make an argument of this sort in the current panic is being seen as insensitive and met with outrage (“you don’t care about me/someone’s parents/grandparents”).

If the consensus ends up being that we need to put an 18 month hold on all activity and spend trillions of dollars to extend the lives of a few hundred thousand octogenarians, this will be a mistake that resonates for generations.

Also, the current policy being pursued isn’t a simple “spend x, save y lives” trade-off. An extended period of isolation will not only have economic effects (greater poverty, on average, will reduce life expectancy for many), it’ll also result in a higher incidence of mental health issues and suicide. Children will have their educational development severely disrupted. When the calculus on this policy becomes clear, it could be possible that we end up trading many millions of years of aggregate future life to save a million people who’ve already lived very full lives.

[GreeniFi]

I’m an economist, I get your Cost Benefit Analysis. But I think you’re missing two factors: firstly the psychological cost a community where senicide occurs (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senicide).

Secondly, the fact that governments are not rational. This UK government is beginning to wake up to the fact that it will lose all public support in coming months and is making belated attempts to shore up some public support.

[kmlx]

> This UK government is beginning to wake up to the fact that it will lose all public support in coming months and is making belated attempts to shore up some public support.

lose support over what exactly? are you foreseeing a scandal of some sorts?

[GreeniFi]

There’s going to be huge criticism over mismanagement of the crisis. The criticism will be at two levels: 1. You didn’t act fast enough and lots of people died before their time. 2. When you did act, it was too late and that has ramped up the cost to the economy.

As it is we might be headed towards a yo-yo epidemic. Interesting argument here: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/he...

Ps wasn’t sure if you were being sarcastic...

[kmlx]

thanks for the reply. interesting link as well.

i was generally curios since some polls indicate growing satisfaction with the ruling Conservative party as well as the PM.

to me it seems that most of the world is in "flattening the curve" mode in order to alleviate stress on their health systems. as such this disease will run it's course and i don't think there will be a scandal in the UK as most countries will be either the same or worse-off. but an inquiry? definitely.

[UncleEntity]

> Any attempt to make an argument of this sort in the current panic is being seen as insensitive and met with outrage (“you don’t care about me/someone’s parents/grandparents”).

IDK, maybe it's just some of us are willing to sacrifice a bit if it means that people don't get turned away from hospitals because they are no longer "economically productive"?

I, for one, would much rather spend a few weeks/months wondering how long I can go without paying my rent as I have no current income than do something like, say, go invade Iraq for a third time.

It's all about perspective methinks...