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by DougN7 2285 days ago
I want to know how social distancing can work in the long run. Obviously it slows the spread, but until 60-70% of the population is exposed (200+ million in the US), we won’t have herd immunity. That means we’ll still be fighting exponential growth.

So how long will it take to expose 200 million people? At 10 million a month (horrific!) it will still take two years. No country can afford to spend $1 trillion every quarter to prop up the economy. I’m afraid social distancing merely delays the awful inevitable.
2 comments
vharuck 2285 days ago
It's not only to keep the number of people needing hospital care below capacity, it will also lower the final proportion of a population infected before herd immunity has an effect [1]. By slowing the spread, it becomes more and more likely somebody exposed to the virus has already recovered and is immune.

[1] https://www.r-bloggers.com/flatten-the-covid-19-curve/

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DougN7 2285 days ago
To be more likely that the next person to get it is already immune requires millions and millions to be exposed. That’s exactly what herd immunity is. So how long will it take millions and millions to get this immunity.
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vharuck 2284 days ago
Sorry for the ambiguous wording: more likely than before a period of strict isolation to be immune. There would still be a spike after isolation is lifted, but the total number of people infected by the end of this wave will be reduced.

Of course, the question is "how much" and whether that's worth the cost. But not overloading the ICUs is valuable on its own.

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ericb 2285 days ago
If the recent study that 90% of people can be virus free after 6 days of hydroxy choloroquine and azithromycin holds up, it seems like we could get through things much quicker than all that.
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DougN7 2285 days ago
Let’s hope that works, and that we have enough to go around to hundreds of millions of people around the world.
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blaser-waffle 2284 days ago
choloroquine is not a trivial drug. large amounts of it can have ugly side effects and can be quite toxic. exposing everyone to the virus and then slamming them with choloroquine is not a viable option.
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ericb 2284 days ago
Agreed, but most of the side effects go away once you stop treatment, or only occur with long term use.
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