[lynnetye]

I'm the founder of Key Values, which helps software engineers find teams that share their values. Not only do I live in the Bay Area and have many founder friends, but it is also my full-time job to connect tech startups that are hiring w/ devs looking for new roles, so I think I have a good view on this.

I'm still gathering information on how coronavirus is impacting the job market, but what I know now is that many companies have laid team members off in the last week, and I suspect many more will soon. Most early-stage startups that did not recently fundraise and do not yet have significant revenue will struggle during this pandemic. If they were planning to fundraise this summer, fall, or winter, their investors and advisors have already told them start cutting costs in order to survive. Hence, a rise in layoffs.

More stable startups may have slowed their hiring efforts (i.e. "we planned to hire 40 engineers by 2021, but after adjusting our budget, we're now looking to hire ~20"), but they've also explicitly told me that filling certain roles are more urgent than ever.

While this all sounds bleak, some companies will endure, and a smaller number will actually thrive during these times.

Several folks who have recently been laid off have reached out to me. I know that getting laid off can give you the impression that every company is laying people off, but it isn't true. Companies who need to hire in order to keep up w/ unprecedented demand are ramping up and are excited to capture talented folks who were recently let go. So stay positive, put yourself out there, and keep looking!

I'm currently reaching out to all of the companies I work w/ in order to stay on top of their hiring plans, and I hope to message what I learn in my upcoming newsletters. It is the easiest way for me to keep folks up to date on what I'm seeing, and I absolutely will not take offense if people unsubscribe. Key Values: https://www.keyvalues.com

[edouard-harris]

Chiming in here with a bit of data on the hiring side of things. I'm the cofounder of SharpestMinds, an ISA-powered mentorship marketplace for data scientists. For all the obvious reasons, we track the hiring rates for our grads very closely and have been keeping close tabs on the pandemic's effects on the tech job market.

Our observations so far:

1. Hiring in tech has definitely not gone to zero, even for the junior-level roles we skew towards.

2. We're seeing more like a 60-70% drop in hires compared to our original (pre-COVID) projections for the month of March, so far.

3. Companies least affected seem to fall in two major categories: A) BigCos with deep pockets; and B) SaaS businesses with predictable revenue streams and some degree of economic insulation from the "meatspace" economy.

Many software businesses (e.g., Zapier, GitLab) are already run partly or fully remotely, so their hiring workflows can take quarantine in stride, to an extent. Many others (e.g., Stripe) are quickly adapting to these new constraints.

The effects of a global quarantine and pandemic are almost certain to propagate to all companies eventually. But some are less affected than others, economically and operationally. We're fortunate in tech that it's still quite possible - albeit measurably harder - to get hired under current conditions.

[TAForObvReasons]

> SaaS businesses with predictable revenue streams and some degree of economic insulation from the "meatspace" economy

Those are most likely lagging by a few weeks or a month. Monthly subscriptions are arguably the easiest to cut and companies are looking to cut non-essential services.

[blihp]

With the majority of companies not at all well positioned for work-from-home, I would bet that many business-oriented SaaS companies (that do something useful) are going to be picking up new customers. As a result, they'll probably be hiring people esp. related to operations/customer support.

[Aeolun]

They’re likely also the smallest possible thing that a company can cut. I doubt anyone will save their company by cutting Slack.

[TAForObvReasons]

There are two possibilities: either this is a storm to be weathered or an existential crisis.

In the former, cutting run-rate is important but you also need to look at the aftermath. Firing people now hurts you later on when the storm clears, whereas cutting Slack and switching to open source self-hosted alternatives is a cost savings that won't impede the future growth. Obviously cutting slack won't save a company with zero revenue.

[skissane]

Subscription models vary across SaaS vendors (and even across different offering tiers at the same vendor). At the low end of the market, monthly subscriptions are the norm. As you move up to bigger deal sizes, annual subscriptions become more and more common.

[dickeytk]

60-70% drop meaning if it was 100 roles last month it's 30-40 this month?

[edouard-harris]

Correct.

[geggam]

>1. Hiring in tech has definitely not gone to zero, even for the junior-level roles we skew towards.

This always makes me curious. Why do companies look for junior levels instead of senior ?

It seems to me that with the choice you would want experience if it was an option.

Disclaimer : am employed not looking for work simply perspective

[henryfjordan]

Experience costs $$$, and there is always some more basic or straight-forward work to do in addition to the cutting-edge stuff. If a junior-level engineer can work with the senior, they can do those lesser tasks for less money and let the higher-payed people tackle the harder tasks (and get some experience!)

[geggam]

I am experienced and biased because of that obviously but I have seen so many train wrecks created with this method.

The amount of waste in corporate american and startups is insane. IMO

There are solutions experienced folks know that save so much money when you look at the big picture it always baffles me when I see that..

The other thing that baffles me is when a CIO makes choices based off of things he has read online instead of taking the business need and finding the most economical solution

If you are interested in making money finding technical solutions with known failures is the key. Experience always knows those.

Just a perspective and comment to an opposing. Not arguing.

[henryfjordan]

It's all a fancy optimization problem. Each project can be broken into tasks that take X amount of skill/experience and you have workers with varying skill. If you only have high-value workers, you'll be wasting a lot of skill/experience on the menial tasks. If you only have low-value workers then some projects will fail because none of them meet the skill thresholds.

As a company you want a diversity of workers to allow you to better optimize.

[geggam]

There is some merit to that but what I see over and over is companies try to use too much.

Most menial tasks senior guys have figured out how to automate. We hate menial repetitive tasks and find ways to eliminate them so the ROI of having a senior guy is yes payroll is higher but you have less headcount.

There really isnt anything new being done. Containers have been around for ages ( Solaris doms / freebsd jails )

What I see is companies prematurely optimizing by saying they need portability and multi cloud strategies before they have achieved profitability.

Multi cloud is expensive and difficult and if you don't have a successful business you really don't need it to be portable.

Just some observations from someone watching various business models

[johnmarcus]

Another reason is 'experienced' developers can sometimes be difficult to work with. They can be arrogant and bull headed, 'my way or the highway' sorta attitudes. Negative to others with new ideas, etc. Teams that already have some vets on them like working with Jr folks precisely because they are moldable.

[geggam]

Good read for you

http://boringtechnology.club/

I'll leave this one alone as opinionated experienced guys get like that for a reason

[mkagenius]

> 60-70% drop in hires compared to our original (pre-COVID) projections for the month

what was your original projection

[Peretus]

Wow, these are fantastic insights that almost exactly match the language that was used during the announcement at our company. They were planning on a raise in the next few months and this hit them pretty hard. I don't blame them for for the steps they've taken as, frankly, it's the only thing that makes financial sense.

Thanks again for this comment, and I'll absolutely be subscribing to your newsletter.

[lynnetye]

No worries! I'm sorry to hear you were laid off, but am glad you aren't taking it personally and understand the reasoning behind what was certainly a difficult and painful decision. There's a lot of uncertainty right now –– for everyone –– but I think people who are resourceful, stay positive, and take initiative (like posting this on HN to generate discussion) are gonna be A-okay.

Btw, I don't know your email, but feel free to reply to my next newsletter (goes out on Thursdays) if you have specific questions or feedback on how I can be more helpful. I sometimes feel powerless because I don't know what I can do to help during these trying times –– I'm not a healthcare professional, I'm not rich, I'm not a political leader, I'm not famous –– but I can at least (a) connect individuals and companies who can help each other, and (b) do my part to inform anyone I know about COVID-19, the job market, and/or what I'm doing/thinking. It's not a lot, but hey, it's at least a start!

[Peretus]

I've subscribed to your newsletter and will be staying in touch. Also, in case you'd like to get in touch directly, my email is my name (Casey McNeil) at the mail service that google offers.

[juliusx]

This project looks useful, but I don't see any conservative values. What if someone values monoculturalism?

[farazbabar]

I hope we are not conflating conservative values with monoculturalism and you meant to ask about two different values. Also, as someone who has been at the receiving end of monoculturalism crowd, I hope they find enlightenment eventually.

[ykevinator]

Why are you hijacking his thing?

[Peretus]

As the OP, I intended for this to be more about a discussion of the current market than my particular situation. While things just became quite difficult for me personally, and I would love the opportunity to make a connection that leads to another job due to this post, things have gotten much worse for many people all together. This individual's comment was insightful, helpful, and directly answered the question I asked in my post. Personally, I'm quite glad this person added their perspective.