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by digitaltrees 2287 days ago
1. Early evidence of UBI reducing employment actually shows the opposite.

2. Increased demand for consumer staples, if met with increased supply won't lead to inflation, if suppliers and entrepreneurs see the increase in demand as stable, they will make investments to increase supply. As long as we allow the price seeking mechanism of the market reach equilibrium, inflation will be at most momentary.

3. Velocity of money doesn't, by itself create inflation. Said another way, it's not a sufficient condition to bring about inflation. Sometimes a massive increase in money is just hoarded and doesn't enter the economy in any real sense.

4. Taxes don't necessarily have to rise in a regressive way such as sales tax and instead could be redistribution. I suspect what we would see is less inflation in the luxury art and real estate market if taxes were increased and the proceeds redistributed.

1 comments

1. Below is a summary of evidence that UBI reduces employment. The reductions of working hours are substantial, even in studies widely spun as "no change". Below that is also HN debate about it.

https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2019/basic_income_reduces...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22493537

2. Assuming that the equilibrium point remains at the same price level is difficult. It requires assumptions about the elasticity of demand and the elasticity of supply. Generally, if UBI has disincentivized work, you would expect less work, less supply, and a higher equilibrium price.

3. Under a constant money supply, increased velocity of money does create inflation. This is fairly standard economic theory. Increased hoarding is definitively a decrease in the velocity of money.

4. Fair enough, but it requires you to trust the politicians to pass a tax that impacts only the extremely wealthy. This is not guaranteed or even likely.