[zamfi]

5% of cases need hospitalization for ~2-3 weeks; 2% require an ICU; 1% a ventilator. We have 96k ICU beds (and 160k ventilators) in the USA. Most constrained means we can't have more than 4.8 million sick at a given time -- but that's over 2-3 weeks, which yields ~2-3 years for 200 million people.

I assume the "41 years" people are using some other constraint.

[wwweston]

Thanks, it’s the 2-3 weeks factor I was missing (and I don’t even know if that’s optimistic I suppose).