[tomp]

I think China will be "punished" anyways, regardless when this crisis ends. There's no way globalization will continue in the future, governments will force companies to move production of essential supplies (food, medicine, raw materials) back locally to make their economies resilient to similar shocks in the future.

Fortunately, for China, the country is starting to have enough local consumption that it probably doesn't need to be just an export hub any more (but undoubtedly it will hurt).

Edit: this will, I predict, hurt Western companies & shareholders as well. I expect many companies to be much more rigorously stress-tested for supply chain and/or labour issues, similar to how banks are stress-tested for credit issues. This will mean thinner margins, lower profits.

[pinkfoot]

Well, until the first western cost accountant tells you to go back and "sharpen your pencil" by 20%.

Your well constructed arguments about resilience will fall on deaf ears come bonus time.

[tomp]

Obviously, which is why I'm guessing it will be centrally enforced (laws by governments). Not for companies like Uber or Netflix, but whatever is consider "essential" (medicine, energy, food, raw metals, ...).