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by cliffy
2283 days ago
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"R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen as it is also affected by other factors such as environmental conditions and the behaviour of the infected population." [0] If we hold R0 down long enough through change of behavior then we can absolutely flatten the curve. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number |
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From wiki "What these thresholds will do is determine whether a disease will die out (if R0 < 1) or whether it may become epidemic (if R0 > 1), but they generally can not compare different diseases."
If seasonal flu (type-B?) has an R0 of ~1.3 can we reasonably call seasonal flu an epidemic?
H1N1 (spanish and swine flu) is ~1.8 and had major outbreaks in 1918 and 2009.
Is it realistic to expect we can sufficiently influence covid-19 using NPIs to achieve R0 < 1?