[Onanymous]

> I suspect the true numbers are about 10x-50x the reported confirmed cases

I came to similar conclusion just looking at the openly available numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If you compare the number of serious cases to the number of total cases for different countries you'll get a 10x difference. Norway tests more thoroughly then the other countries, so it has a huge number of active cases. But from those only ~2% serious. There may be different reasons for such a discrepancy but I tend to agree with your conclusion that we have a lot of asymptomatic cases around, higher then estimated R0 and lower then estimated fatality.

[shadowprofile77]

Sincerely curious, how do you square this with the CFR in Italy at this time? That the initial impact to primarily elderly people and a low count of cases compared to a much larger undiagnosed quantity (still mostly undiagnosed cases) are creating a high death rate statistic? Or do you think some other factors are at work there?

[jonplackett]

I made a simple site to graph the daily increase figures. It only shows infections and deaths but from that you can see very different ratios for different countries.

(http://coronanalytics.com if you’re interested.)

[travisr]

You might try sorting the countries in your select input. They appear to be in some random order and I almost gave up looking for the country I was interested in.

[jonplackett]

This is a good shout. I’m just using them in the order the John Hopkins institute put them. A sort would be useful!

[nickm12]

Came back from the link to leave the same comment. It's impossible to use that selector.

[underlines]

do you respect the time delay when calculating Case Fatality Rate?

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

[jonplackett]

I’m just using the data straight from the John Hopkins institute.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19