[tarsinge]

The past is not a predictor of the future, 2008 is a single point hardly representative of any economic crisis to come. A lump sum invested in 1929 would have taken decade to recover, and with the Nikkei it still wouldn’t have. These models based on 1 or 2 selected crisis as if we had seen all always amaze me.

[deanmoriarty]

it’s obvious that past performance is not a predictor for the future. Yet, I could have said your same exact words in 2000 and 2008: “this time is different, let me go out of the market!”.

I don’t know any other investment which is completely passive that will statistically allow me to grow my capital over the long term. So yes, I will rely on 100 years of data I have, and to prevent Nikkei I try to diversify using a healthy international allocation. If you have a different investing vehicle to suggest, please let me know.

[ScottFree]

> If you have a different investing vehicle to suggest, please let me know.

Land, seeds, livestock and ammo. If you're worried that the market might collapse so hard that it won't recover in your lifetime, then trading money for lasting goods while money still has value is the best course of action.

Personally, I'm not convinced it's going to get that bad, but I have friends who have gone down that route. They all prefer their new lives to their old ones.