[endogui]

The Italian number (75%) comes from testing everyone in a village of 3000 people. The Chinese number (1%) comes from testing everyone who comes to hospitals and maybe their family members. I would guess that the Chinese sample was selected for people displaying symptoms (asymptomatic people will not go to the clinic), while the Italian number biases for people early in the course of the disease. For the purposes of public health and controlling disease spread, the Italian number is more meaningful.

Note also that it is possible the virus has evolved to spread more easily, which in the context of a lot of screening and social distancing of symptomatic people would mean more asymptomatic spreading.

[lgats]

How are the South Korean's coming up with such few positives if the disease is presumably spreading among the 70% with no symptoms?

[endogui]

Most "asymptomatic" people will show symptoms within two weeks, so aggressive cluster/contact tracing works. South Korean local goveenment staff are following the credit card use, transit use, and other daily movements (CCTV logs) for every confirmed case, then issue two week self-isolation orders to those who shared a workplace, restaurant, cafe, church, or elevator with the confirmed case. Since most cases get a short lived fever or cough within two weeks, SK has been able to stop most transmission chains. I'm actually a bit confused about the scope of SK testing. It looks like everyone with symptoms is being tested, as well as quarantined health care workers and quarantined people from high risk groups, but I'm not sure whether asymptomatic people are tested at the end of their quarantine period.

[notahacker]

Yup. Apparent efficacy of the South Korean approach versus more generalised 'self-isolate if you have symptoms' instructions would be a point in favour of the disease being often asymptomatic [for extended periods]

[ksec]

They wore medical grade mask in the first place. Hygiene and cautious about it. They stopped and block visits from China ( or any where else with COVID ) very early on. Instead of acting everything is going to be great despite all the warnings, they were mindful and kept social gathering to minimal. ( Comparatively speaking ). Citizens were also proactively reporting if they were having symptoms, and government are testing every case as well as tracing where they have been and issue warning.

Medical Mask also meant even though the case broke out in a city with very high population density, the spread is far lower ( again comparatively speaking ).

[sWW26]

Where did you get the information that they've blocked people traveling from anywhere with Covid. You can still turn up now from Europe and be let in, they just ask you to install an app and report your health status daily.

[zelphirkalt]

Early strict containment and disciplin.

[confeit]

Thanks, makes sense. Iceland also did voluntary testing and then estimated 1% of their population is infected. I doubt 1% is even showing mild symptoms. Remains the significance of asymptomatic spread. If someone does not cough or sneeze, are they shedding enough to be a formidable source of contagion?

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/first-results-of-genera...