|
As noted in Paul Hoffman's recent book "King's Gambit", after his matches with both "Deep Blue" and "Deep Junior" Kasparov was exhausted: "As with Deep Blue, he had once again let an encounter with a machine play games with his head. He had been obsessed with the idea that Deep Junior would never tire. 'The machine is never distracted by an argument with its mother," he told me, 'or a lack of sleep.' And in the linked piece Kasparov alludes to the reported next approach IBM wants to take with Watson - support in medicine. Kasparov's human reaction to his encounters with Watson's distant cousins brings up one obvious benefit in the use of technology like Watson for supporting medical decision-making - simply that such software will be less likely to miss something. Software is less likely to miss considering a diagnosis, ordering a crucial test, or following up on a finding - unlike the fallible 'I' who may have skipped a class in med school, or was up all night on call and just can't think straight, or am just occasionally more stupid than usual. Diagnosis is the first thing people think of with technology like this, but in my opinion that's not the big problem Watson should tackle. Medical diagnosis in and of itself (dramatizations like the TV show 'House' notwithstanding), is not really that difficult 99% of the time. When you hear hoofbeats, you're very likely going to find horses and not zebras. A future Dr. Watson might occasionally be very helpful in pointing out very obscure (but uncommon) diagnoses. However, in my opinion the most helpful thing a Dr. Watson could provide is collecting, evaluating, and comparing evidence and outcomes as they are developed globally and locally (ie across broad swaths of medicine, but also within a single physician's own patient population), continuously educating the physician, and monitoring cases. There is plenty of untapped medical data/evidence out there, but it's almost all hidden away in plain sight...text/natural language. I have to agree with Kasparov here, in that the primary advancement Watson represents was in moving farther down the path from syntax to semantics. |