[sink]

It's fairly easy to reason about the factors that go into the spread of the disease. We have diligent data from Japan, Korea, Spain, and Italy. All show infection curves with very similar shapes along the same timelines. What's more, we can see how quarantining measures have benefited Japan and Korea. Not to mention that the spread of infectious diseases, especially the flu, has been studying quite heavily with modern scientific methods for over a century.

It is far more likely that these measures are being taken because they have been proven effective to prevent harm to citizens, than as a conspiracy to destroy small businesses.

This disease is both very infectious and relatively very deadly. We know that the death rate can double or triple if emergency health care is not available. We also know that without dramatic quarantining measures, the number of people requiring emergency care will overwhelm our health care capacity.

I am a San Francisco resident, and I am grateful that my local government is taking action. I agree with Mayor Breed's assessment that the federal government's response is terrible.

[ae5hhnaer5hb]

Japan has had extremely limited response, only restricting travel from China and South Korea, with no legal means of internal quarantine. The fact that their numbers are similar to countries with strict measures indicates that strict measures have not been more effective than lax measures.

[sink]

I'm not sure I would agree with that.

Measures are being taken, and the Japanese government believes that the rate of infection is still very much growing [1]. Schools have been shut down in Japan. And while the government is not actively enforcing quarantining, that may be due to bureaucratic roadblocks. [2]

[1] https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/03/8aafa8e3636c-loca...

[2] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/11/national/politi...

[nostromo]

Korea is not using quarantine unless you have the infection or have been in contact with someone who does.

They also have had the best results of any country to date.

[jedberg]

They also are testing anyone who wants a test for free. And if someone tests positive, they are using cell phone location records to contact everyone you may have been near while you were infected to come in and get a free test.

[sink]

True! I missed that.

Digging into it, they also had an incredible testing network, which is claimed to be a key differentiator. In the US, the government is actively telling people not to get tested on their own judgements.

I too would prefer much better visibility over a shelter in place order. Unfortunately, we have next to no visibility. So lacking that, I would prefer dramatic measures.