[dataflow]

> I just don't see how these closures aren't going to ripple through the global economy.

I can see it not rippling if (a) a vaccine comes out in time, or (b) people just give up and work anyway, accepting coronavirus as a risk of life. Unlike sacrificing everything for the sake of not getting coronavirus, that can actually go on indefinitely.

[standardUser]

"Unlike sacrificing everything for the sake of not getting coronavirus, that can actually go on indefinitely."

Not even remotely true.

If people go back to normal (against the advice from every agency with experience handling communicable diseases) the disease will spread at an exponential rate. Healthcare systems across the globe will be overwhelmed (like Italy and China but vastly worse) and people start suffering and dying from curable illnesses due to lack of capacity.

Then, once people start dying by thousands, everyone will quarantine themselves anyway.

There is no scenario where this doesn't ripple.

[mehrdadn]

> There is no scenario where this doesn't ripple.

We can argue (b), but did you just ignore my (a)? How would that ripple like this?

[gus_massa]

The vaccine will take like 1 year to test and be sure that it is effective and that it is safe and cause no nasty side effects. So for 2020, let's ignore (a).

[jeremyjh]

I don't know why this is being downvoted. A year is actually a fairly aggressive schedule. Of course there may be certain elected officials who will push to certify anything at all before November but nothing will be proven safe in that little time.

[akiselev]

It might not take that long. If the vaccine candidate is viable, Stage 1 trials could be completed in a few months since there's already tons of patients with COVID-19 going to hospitals where they can be monitored for a maximum safe dose trial. The FDA might be able to waive most of Phase 1 similar to some oncology drugs and once it hits Phase 2, they just needs enough data about efficacy and safety to declare it a breakthrough therapy. The reality is that many clinical trials take time because of how long it takes to set up the infrastructure, get patients, and coordinate with an understaffed and underfunded FDA. If the entire agency is ordered to focus on COVID-19, I think it could happen a lot faster.

That's only if the vaccine works though. If do that process and it turns out it doesn't, it could make the situation a whole lot worse.

[allovernow]

There is a high probability that at least many candidate vaccines could have induce a deadly autoimmune reaction upon exposure to the virus, because of antibody dependent enhancement (ADE), which is shared by other coronaviruses like the previous SARS. At least one paper I read trialing multiple vaccine candidates on animals reported failures in all cases due to autoimmune damage to lung tissue.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006291X1...

[standardUser]

Can a vaccine be released in such a short timeframe? I don't think anyone is suggesting a vaccine can be released in less than several months. But it is suggested that the pandemic itself could subside within that timeframe.

[DeonPenny]

The minimum amount a vaccine has ever been made is over a year. A vaccine just gives you the virus but in a damaged state.

[DeonPenny]

Viruses aren't curable

[swiley]

It sounds a little too serious for b.

If you develop symptoms you may need serious medical attention (intubation) in order to survive regardless of age.

Wether or not you develop symptoms you can develop serious organ damage that results in life long chronic health problems (due to damage to lungs, kidneys and testes.)

It sounds to me like this virus is in fact much more serious than most people thought even with the hype.

[mehrdadn]

Whether or not it's too serious for b depends on the alternatives. When the alternative is you don't make any money or have anything to eat, coronavirus might seem like the inevitable alternative, especially for younger/healthier folks.

[allovernow]

I didn't want to write it out again but you took the words out of my mouth.

All of the worst [pending] peer reviewer papers are gradually being confirmed, it seems. The news has been getting consistently worse for literally two months now and we now have at least a dozen countries on lockdown, and growing.

[DeonPenny]

vaccine take a year more more to develop people should stop saying this. Whats gonna happen is the same thing that will happen with chickenpox. Everyone will get it and you'll be ok unless you have a underlining condition