The relevant facts are, one, only much older people have to worry about it, and two, the cure already exists in washing yourself. This common flu is here to stay, the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant.
Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients.
Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU.
All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people is likely to be 10-20x that of the flu.
Yep, I am in the unfortunate situation of being an Oregon trying to arrange public health insurance and make doctor's appointments as soon as possible for a worsening long-term digestive condition. I'm definitely concerned about being put off or crowded out of hospitals.
I've never seen studies that say anything about "permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients". Where did you read this?
Even the very first COVID-19 study [1] showed that 42% of the survivors (and _all_ of the deceased) treated in the Wuhan pulmonary hospitals experienced sepsis. Sepsis [3] causes tissue death all around the body, leading to permanent decrease in the function of the affected organs. Our ways of mitigating sepsis work only for bacterial infections, which COVID-19 isn't [2].
Sepsis aside, just plain pneumonia in adults is no laughing matter: pneumonia survivors are twice as likely to die as others in their demographic, be they rich, poor, old or young [4]. See the long term effects of SARS: if you survive, your health status and exercise capacity will be impaired for a long time, potentially for the rest of your life [5].
> Sepsis was a common complication, which might be directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection, but further research is needed to investigate the pathogenesis of sepsis in COVID-19 illness.
> 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients).
>I've never seen studies that say anything about "permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients". Where did you read this?
It's obviously bullshit. How would we know about "permanent" damage from a disease a few months old.
Ya know, because we humans can't regenerate organs at the drop of a hat... or at all. So if your lung tissue starts dying, that's it. The best you can hope for is permanent scarring to replace the dead tissue. Scar tissue is a poor replacement for the original by many measures.
Some organs can and others can grow in size to compensate for reduce efficiency. Plus, there's no real evidence that Covid is causing organ damage.
> if your lung tissue starts dying, that's it
That's definitely not "it". Your lungs can repair damaged tissue and the system as a whole can adapt to compensate for portions that can't be repaired. And also no real evidence that long term damage is being done.
I don't have any links handy but I've seen reports that in a few cases covid19 has indeed caused permanent lung damage after the infection subsided. Apparently it's rare but possible but don't take my word for it.
I don't think any other organs growing in size are going to compensate for reduced lung function. It's true our bodies adapt to damage but once the tissue is dead it's not coming back.
Nobody know where a reputable source is. It’s just a laundry list of all the ‘talking points’. I keep hearing people say this stuff, but nobody knows where it came from.
It is certainly not the message the CDC is putting out in the USA.
Those are some important facts, thanks for sharing. I’d like to see the probability of healthy people getting permanent damage however. That would change my mind. Until then the extremely low fatality and infection rate for average people, as well as the incubation period being so long that it’s unrealistic to contain it, is enough for me not to worry about it.
"as well as the incubation period being so long that it’s unrealistic to contain it, is enough for me not to worry about it."
Remember that low-risk people still get infected, and still infect others. The evidence is fairly conclusive at this point that you're infections even if you lack symptoms, so you can easily be putting the at-risk people in your life (or in communities around you) in significant peril by being careless and thoughtless.
Please be extremely careful with this disease. If you're not going to self-isolate or be more cautious and normal, please do not visit any at-risk people in your life
AIUI, SARS did cause permanent damage because many people were treated with strong anti-inflammatory drugs that suppress the immune system, despite the ongoing viral infection. These will probably be used against COVID-19 as well, especially given ICU shortages. Hopefully we will gain a better understanding over time of how to properly balance the avoidance of life-threatening damage from the immune response (e.g. due to CRS) with still countering the virus effectively.
> low fatality and infection rate for average people
Could you say how're defining "average" because right now it just sounds like "me". There's a lot of people who are non-average and have the very same right to live as the average.
Uh well it causes bilateral interstitial pneumonia which is inflammation that causes irreversible scarring around the air sacs. If you get it you will have scarring. If you get it badly you will have bad scarring that will impact your future health. If you have an underlying health problem esp if it involves your respiratory system you are fucked. Combine all of this with thousands of your neighbors Unable to breath creates a very interesting union in the ER.
Maybe the Wikipedia article on bilateral interstitial pneumonia will change your mind?
People keep saying this, but if healthcare systems get overwhelmed then everyone has to worry about this "flu". Adding to that, even the strictest measures will only have visible effects in one or two weeks. We literally have no idea what the situation on the ground will look like by then, even in places like Raleigh. That's why it's entirely appropriate to act now and minimize risk.
- In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.
- More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.
I downvoted you because I think you have some factual mistakes:
"only much older people have to worry about it"
That's false. There are a number of comorbidities that don't have anything to do with age. Immuno-compromised individuals, or individuals with pulminary conditions, are at risk regardless of their age.
Further, while the risk does go down for younger populations, only children seem to be fairly risk-free. Healthy individuals of all ages have died of this (at rates significantly higher than that of the flu).
Finally, younger people (even children) still get infected by the disease, still incubate it, and still spread it even if they have no or low symptoms. This means low-risk people can easily spread it to high-risk people without being aware of it.
"the cure already exists in washing yourself"
That's false. Handwashing is not a cure. Handwashing is a preventative measure. They are totally different things.
Once infected, handwashing will do nothing to protect you (though can still help protect others, so ill people should continue to handwash). There are no cures for COVID-19. There is no vaccine for COVID-19. There are no widespread treatments for COVID-19 (though some human trials underway). The only care we can currently provide care for people with COVID-19 is to treat the symptoms.
"This common flu is here to stay"
That's false. Coronavirus is not influenza. It is a type of coronavirus, and is closely related to SARS. The CFR of influenza is around 0.1%, while the Coronavirus is estimated to be around 1% (or higher if medical care becomes saturated).
"the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant."
That's unknown, but disagrees with pretty much all of the expert opinion on the topic. The infections disease expert in the US federal government (Anthony Fauci) thinks it's possible that a million people in the US will die of Coronavirus.
There’s nothing false about it. Fatality rate for 50 and below is a paltry 0.2%, let alone the infection rate is very low as well. The incubation period is long and symptoms for most are mild, so it’s here to stay as it’s easily spreadable. I dont understand your position!
These fatality rate estimates assume top quality medical care. And this crisis is quite simply not "here to stay"; decisive measures can definitely "flatten the curve" and perhaps even lower R0 so much that the virus stops spreading altogether, and cases start dropping towards zero.
I don’t know what makes people like you go online and post this type of incorrect and harmful advice in such a smug fashion. All I can say is you need to educate yourself.
What would be a reputable source for education? I've been reading reports from the CDC and the WHO, as well as listening to microbiologists I know personally who have been studying coronaviruses for some time. I'm seeing lots of fear here, but nothing concrete. Please, educate me: what am I missing in my information feed?
I posted the relevant facts. Please post your relevant facts to counter them. I’ve done my research and until those core facts change my viewpoint remains.
You've posted incorrect and incomplete "facts". Many others in this thread has posted more complete data, please educate yourself and also consider those around you that are more vulnerable.
Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU.
All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people is likely to be 10-20x that of the flu.
Young people need to worry about Covid19/SARS2